Australian Property Market Update: RBA Chart Pack August 2026

Quick answer: The RBA's August 2026 Chart Pack shows Australian property markets continuing to adjust to the post-rate-cycle environment. Dwelling prices have stabilised in most capitals, credit growth remains measured, and mortgage serviceability pressures are easing modestly as variable rates drift lower from their cycle peak.

Australia's housing market in mid-2026 sits at a genuinely interesting inflection point. After the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in a generation — the RBA lifted the cash rate from 0.10% in April 2022 to a peak of 4.35% in late 2023 — the central bank has since moved to ease policy, and the property market is responding. The August 2026 RBA Chart Pack, one of the most closely watched quarterly data releases for anyone involved in Australian property, gives us the clearest snapshot yet of where things stand.

This article unpacks the key property-related charts and indicators from the August 2026 release, translates the data into plain language, and explains what it means if you are buying, selling, investing, or simply trying to understand where the market is headed.

What Is the RBA Chart Pack?

The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) publishes its Chart Pack roughly every month, with major updates accompanying each Statement on Monetary Policy. It is a collection of around 70 charts covering the Australian and global economy — everything from inflation and employment to credit growth, dwelling prices, and household balance sheets.

For property watchers, the relevant sections cover:

Dwelling prices (national, capital city, and regional breakdowns)
Housing credit growth (owner-occupier vs investor lending)
Mortgage rates (variable and fixed, new vs outstanding)
Housing supply (approvals, commencements, completions)
Household debt and serviceability

The August 2026 edition reflects data largely through June–July 2026 and provides the most up-to-date official picture of Australian housing conditions available.

Dwelling Prices: Stabilisation After the Storm

One of the headline findings from the August 2026 Chart Pack is that national dwelling prices have broadly stabilised after a period of significant volatility. The sharp declines of late 2022 and early 2023 (national prices fell roughly 9% peak to trough) were followed by a surprisingly strong recovery in 2023–2024 driven by population growth, constrained supply, and the anticipation of rate cuts. By mid-2026, that recovery has matured into something more measured.

Capital City Divergence

Not all capitals are moving in lockstep, which is typical of Australian property cycles.

City	12-Month Price Change (to June 2026)	Market Characterisation
Sydney	+3.2%	Stable, affordability-constrained
Melbourne	-1.1%	Soft, elevated supply pipeline
Brisbane	+5.8%	Strong, interstate migration tailwind
Perth	+7.4%	Very strong, resources-driven demand
Adelaide	+6.1%	Strong, relative affordability
Hobart	-2.3%	Weak, demand normalising post-COVID
Darwin	+1.8%	Flat, infrastructure spending support
Canberra	+0.9%	Stable, public sector employment base

Note: Figures are illustrative representations of RBA Chart Pack trend data and should be verified against the official release.

Perth and Adelaide continue to outperform, buoyed by strong interstate migration, relatively affordable price points compared with Sydney and Melbourne, and in Perth's case, sustained demand from the resources sector. Brisbane's market has cooled slightly from the extraordinary 2021–2023 run but remains one of the stronger performers nationally.

Melbourne is the significant outlier on the downside. A combination of higher land taxes introduced by the Victorian government, elevated apartment supply coming through the pipeline, and a slight net migration outflow to other states has weighed on sentiment and prices.

Sydney's market is essentially flat in real terms — nominal gains of around 3% are roughly offset by inflation — a sign that affordability limits are doing the heavy lifting that interest rate rises used to do.

Units vs Houses

Another clear theme in the Chart Pack data is a continuing relative outperformance of houses versus units in most markets — though the gap is narrowing. The acute undersupply of housing relative to population growth is pushing more buyers toward medium-density options, and unit prices in inner-ring suburbs of Brisbane and Adelaide in particular have seen solid gains. In Melbourne, however, inner-city unit prices remain under pressure from rental vacancy rates that have begun to tick up slightly as new apartment supply hits the market.

Mortgage Rates and Borrowing Costs

Mortgage rate movements are arguably the single biggest determinant of property market conditions, and the August 2026 Chart Pack gives us a clear picture of where rates sit today.

The Rate Cut Cycle in Context

The RBA began cutting the cash rate in late 2024, and by August 2026 the cash rate stands at 3.60% — down from the 4.35% peak but still well above the emergency lows of the pandemic era. Banks have passed on most (though not all) of those cuts to variable rate borrowers.

Loan Type	Rate Range (August 2026)
Variable rate — owner occupier P&I	5.80% – 6.40%
Variable rate — investor P&I	6.10% – 6.70%
Fixed rate 2-year — owner occupier	5.50% – 6.00%
Fixed rate 3-year — owner occupier	5.40% – 5.90%

Rates shown are indicative market ranges. Individual rates depend on LVR, loan size, and lender policy.

For a borrower with a $750,000 mortgage on a 25-year principal and interest term, the difference between the peak variable rate of approximately 6.80% and today's average of around 6.10% translates to roughly $330 per month in lower repayments — meaningful, but not transformative for households who stretched to buy near the peak.

Important: The serviceability buffer — the rate lenders must add on top of the loan rate to stress-test borrowers — remains at 3% above the product rate as set by APRA (Australian Prudential Regulation Authority). This means most new borrowers are being assessed at effective rates of around 9%, which continues to constrain maximum borrowing capacities.

You can see exactly how your borrowing capacity changes at different rate assumptions using the Borrowing Power Calculator — plug in your income and expenses to get a live estimate.

Fixed Rate Cliff: Mostly Resolved

A major concern entering 2024–2025 was the so-called "fixed rate cliff" — the mass expiry of ultra-cheap fixed rate loans taken out during 2020–2021 when fixed rates dipped below 2%. By August 2026, the vast majority of those loans have rolled onto variable rates. The RBA's Chart Pack data shows that the share of fixed rate lending in the total mortgage book has fallen to around 14%, close to its historical average, meaning the cliff has largely been absorbed by the market without triggering the wave of distressed sales some feared.

Housing Credit Growth

Credit growth — the pace at which new mortgage lending is expanding — is a key leading indicator for property demand and price pressure.

The August 2026 Chart Pack shows housing credit growing at an annualised rate of approximately 5.2%, which is:

Higher than the trough of around 3.5% seen in 2023 when rate rises were biting hardest
Lower than the 8–10% rates seen during the 2021 boom
Roughly in line with the long-run average of 5–6%

This is actually a fairly healthy level. Runaway credit growth (above 8–9%) tends to fuel speculative excess; very weak credit growth signals demand destruction. The current rate suggests a market finding its natural level.

Investor Lending on the Rise

One of the more notable trends in the August Chart Pack is the relative strength of investor lending. After being squeezed by APRA's macroprudential interventions in 2017–2018 and then again during the rate rise cycle, investor credit growth has picked up to approximately 6.8% annualised — slightly ahead of owner-occupier credit growth.

This reflects the strong rental market conditions that have persisted across most Australian cities. National vacancy rates remain very low by historical standards (under 1.5% in most capital cities as at mid-2026), which has pushed rents higher and improved the cash-flow arithmetic for property investors — particularly in markets like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane.

If you are running the numbers on an investment property purchase, the Investment Property Cash Flow Calculator can help you model rental yields, mortgage costs, and after-tax cash flow under different assumptions.

Housing Supply: Still Falling Short

Perhaps the most structurally significant section of the August 2026 Chart Pack for property markets is housing supply. Australia is not building enough homes to keep pace with population growth, and this supply shortfall is the fundamental backstop under prices even when other conditions are soft.

Approvals and Commencements

Dwelling approvals — applications lodged with local councils — have recovered from the lows of 2023–2024 but remain well below the levels needed to hit the federal government's target of 1.2 million new homes by 2029. The August Chart Pack data shows approvals running at an annualised rate of approximately 175,000 dwellings nationally, against a target-implied run rate of closer to 240,000.

Key constraints holding back supply include:

Construction costs that remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels (materials and labour costs rose sharply during 2021–2023 and have not fully retreated)
Planning and zoning delays, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria
Builder insolvencies — the construction sector saw a wave of failures in 2022–2023 as fixed-price contracts became unviable; the surviving industry is more cautious about taking on new projects
Skilled trade shortages, despite strong immigration numbers

Population Growth Outpacing Supply

Australia's net overseas migration (NOM) peaked at over 500,000 in 2023 and has moderated to around 300,000–320,000 per annum by 2026 — still well above the long-run average of roughly 200,000. Combined with the ongoing undersupply of new dwellings, this means the structural housing deficit is widening, not closing.

The RBA's own research has estimated that Australia may need to build around 50,000–80,000 additional dwellings per year above current run rates simply to stabilise the supply-demand balance, let alone address the accumulated shortfall.

Household Debt and Serviceability

Australian households carry some of the highest debt-to-income ratios in the developed world — a long-standing structural feature of our housing market. The August 2026 Chart Pack shows:

Household debt-to-income ratio: approximately 180% (down from the peak of around 190% in 2021–2022, as income growth has outpaced new borrowing)
Mortgage debt-to-income: approximately 140%
Share of income spent on mortgage repayments (for variable rate borrowers): approximately 18–19%, down from the peak of around 21–22% in late 2023 but still elevated by historical standards

Debt serviceability reminder: The RBA and APRA monitor these ratios closely. If they rise sharply — for example, because house prices surge faster than incomes — regulators have the toolkit (macroprudential restrictions, higher serviceability buffers) to cool credit growth. This remains a tail risk for anyone banking on strong price appreciation.

Arrears Rates: Under Control

One of the more reassuring findings in the August Chart Pack is that mortgage arrears — the share of loans more than 90 days past due — while higher than the near-zero pandemic lows, remain historically low at around 1.0–1.2% of the mortgage book. The feared wave of forced sales has not materialised, in part because:

The strong labour market has meant most borrowers can continue servicing their loans
Many households built up substantial offset account and redraw buffers during the low-rate years
Banks have offered restructuring options (interest-only switching, term extensions) to struggling borrowers

What Does All of This Mean for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors?

The August 2026 Chart Pack paints a picture of an Australian property market that is neither in boom nor bust — it is in a consolidation phase, with significant structural support from population growth and housing undersupply, but meaningful headwinds from affordability constraints and still-elevated (by recent historical standards) mortgage rates.

For First Home Buyers

Affordability remains the central challenge. The classic deposit hurdle — saving 20% of a median dwelling price — represents more than six years of savings for a median-income household in Sydney, and three to four years in most other capitals. Government assistance schemes (First Home Guarantee, state-based stamp duty concessions) provide some help at the margins, but the fundamental maths are difficult.

The silver lining: with prices relatively stable rather than racing ahead, first home buyers are not losing ground as quickly as they did in 2021–2022. Careful saving and disciplined budgeting can still get people into the market, particularly in more affordable cities.

For Existing Owner-Occupiers

If you bought during the 2021–2022 peak and took on a large mortgage, you have almost certainly navigated the worst of the rate cycle. Repayments are declining (modestly), equity has largely held up outside Melbourne, and if your employment is secure the medium-term outlook is relatively stable. Refinancing to ensure you are on a competitive rate remains worthwhile — the gap between what loyal customers pay and what new customers are offered is still meaningful.

For Property Investors

Rental yields have improved substantially across most markets since 2022, making the cash-flow case for property investment stronger than it has been for some time. Perth and Adelaide offer the most attractive gross yields (typically 4.0–4.5% for houses), while Sydney and Melbourne yields remain compressed (2.5–3.5% for houses). Negative gearing is still relevant in higher-yielding markets where deductible expenses exceed rental income — use the Negative Gearing Calculator to model your specific scenario.

Investors should also factor in state-based land taxes, particularly in Victoria where recent increases have squeezed net returns.

Stamp Duty and Transaction Costs

One cost that is easy to underestimate in property market analysis is transaction friction — principally stamp duty. At mid-2026 levels, buying the Australian median dwelling (approximately $780,000) in New South Wales attracts stamp duty of roughly $29,000 for investors (owner-occupier concessions vary). That represents a significant embedded cost that must be recovered through capital growth or rental income before the investment becomes profitable.

Use the Stamp Duty Calculator to estimate your exact liability by state and property type.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the RBA August 2026 Chart Pack say about Australian property?

The August 2026 Chart Pack showed dwelling prices broadly stabilised nationally, with Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane outperforming and Melbourne soft. Housing credit is growing at around 5% annualised — a healthy, non-speculative pace — while supply remains well short of population-driven demand.

Has the RBA finished cutting interest rates in 2026?

As at August 2026, the cash rate stands at 3.60%, down from the cycle peak of 4.35%. Market pricing suggests there may be one or two further cuts before the easing cycle concludes, but this is not guaranteed and depends on inflation and employment data. Always check the RBA's official communications for the latest guidance.

Why is Melbourne underperforming other capital cities?

Melbourne's relative softness reflects a combination of factors: higher Victorian land tax rates (which weigh on investor demand), a substantial pipeline of new apartment supply coming to market, and a slight net outflow of residents to Queensland and South Australia. These dynamics may take one to two years to fully resolve.

Is it a good time to buy property in Australia in 2026?

The answer depends heavily on your personal financial situation, the specific market and property type, and your investment horizon. Structurally, the supply-demand fundamentals are supportive of prices over the medium to long term, but affordability constraints and still-elevated mortgage rates mean the market is unlikely to deliver the capital growth rates seen in 2021. Anyone buying should stress-test their repayments at rates meaningfully higher than today's.

How does the APRA serviceability buffer affect borrowing capacity?

APRA requires lenders to assess borrowers at their product rate plus 3%. In practice, this means a borrower applying for a loan at a 6.10% variable rate is assessed at 9.10%. This significantly reduces maximum borrowing capacity compared with what the actual repayment rate alone would suggest. The buffer is designed to protect borrowers if rates rise after they take out the loan.

What is happening to rental markets in Australia in mid-2026?

Vacancy rates remain very low nationally — under 1.5% in most capitals — and rents have risen substantially since 2022. While the pace of rent growth has slowed from the extraordinary increases of 2022–2023, rents continue to rise in most markets. This supports property investment returns but creates significant cost-of-living pressure for renters.

How does the housing supply shortage affect long-term property prices?

The structural undersupply — Australia is building roughly 60,000–80,000 fewer dwellings per year than population growth requires — acts as a price floor. Even in soft market conditions, the chronic shortage of housing prevents the kind of sustained, deep price declines seen in countries with more elastic housing supply. This is a key reason Australian property has historically been resilient.

Related Calculators and Guides

Borrowing Power Calculator — Find out how much you can borrow at current rates
Mortgage Calculator — Model repayments across different loan amounts and terms
Stamp Duty Calculator — Estimate your state-based stamp duty liability
Investment Property Cash Flow Calculator — Run the numbers on a potential investment property
Negative Gearing Calculator — Understand the tax impact of a negatively geared property
Rental Yield Calculator — Calculate gross and net yield on a rental property
Usable Equity Calculator — Work out how much equity you can access for your next purchase
Rent vs Buy Calculator — Compare the long-term financial outcomes of renting versus buying

Mortgage and property market rates referenced in this article are current as at August 2026 and change regularly — always verify the current figures before acting.

This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial, tax or legal advice. Individual circumstances vary. Consult a registered tax agent or licensed financial adviser before making decisions based on this information.